Publication review note

Date: 17 August 2026

The raw mediator output is preserved in r2-r3-mediation.md. Before publishing the rerun as the site's current view, two judgments were adjusted.

Petrobras support

The raw mediation used US$500M as a fixed cap. That treated a conservative commitment floor as the expected facility size. Valor reported up to six months of naphtha payment terms, but did not disclose a cap. At the June-plan purchase rate, six months has a mathematical value near US$950M. That ceiling is not a commitment.

The published base uses US$500M firm plus up to US$250M of conditional capacity, expressed as a US$500M to US$750M expected range. US$950M remains an upside sensitivity.

Warrants and RJ

The raw mediator paired 17.5% initial warrants, a 25% step and a 22% RJ probability with the fixed US$500M support assumption. Those terms are internally coherent as a creditor-favorable case, but too punitive for the central case once Petrobras support is modeled as a range and the reported creditor willingness to support an EJ is recognized.

The published base restores 15% initial warrants stepping to 22.5%. The 17.5% to 25% structure remains the creditor-favorable outcome. Published RJ probability is 17%.

Q3 EBITDA

The rerun does not assume US$750M of Q3 EBITDA. US$586M is the company's June planning case. US$750M and US$1.0B are sensitivities. None is a reported Q3 result.

This note is an editorial model review, not a new agent vote. It exists so readers can compare the preserved raw simulation with the final published judgment.