Sources and research files

01 · CORE RECORD

Primary documents

These filings supplied the financial and legal baseline. Links go to the original publisher, not a local copy.

02 · OUTSIDE CONTEXT

External sources

Market, ownership, commercial and political sources used to test the filing-based narrative.

03 · AGENT INPUTS

Saved role briefs and prompt

04 · RUN 1

Original agent outputs

The 16 August run is preserved without retroactive changes. Its complete negotiation is also available as a native page.

05 · RUN 2

17 August rerun

The updated briefs and all role outputs are native pages. The raw mediator result and the publication review are separate so the editorial adjustment is visible.

06 · RUN 3

18 August midday rerun

This run adds Braskem Idesa’s prepack and the disclosed US$476 million parent contribution. It still assumed Shine junior capital. Round-one positions were formed independently. The raw mediator result and the publication review are separate.

07 · RUN 4

18 August evening replay

This run assumes Petrobras and IG4 will not inject capital, and that Elliott / Contrarian will not back a filing unless Petrobras promises extra cash if tests are missed. The published view separates a placeholder filing from a finished deal and raises the chance of a court case.

08 · RUN 5 · INITIAL RECORD

27 August EJ filing rerun (archived)

This first Run 5 record is preserved for auditability. It used the filed plan, its creditor milestones and Petrobras’ disclosed secured R$2.35B commercial-credit facility before the signatory creditor coalition and current-spread assumption were corrected in the current Run 5.

09 · RUN 5S · INTERMEDIATE SENSITIVITY

Current spreads persist through Q3 (archived)

This intermediate sensitivity introduced the 27 August US$531/t same-formula PE proxy. Its coarse US$500M–US$700M band has been superseded by the spreads page’s US$694M bridge estimate in the current Run 5.

10 · RUN 5 · CURRENT

Creditor-coalition correction

The canonical Run 5 replaces the presumed hostile Elliott/Contrarian chair with the disclosed signatory ad hoc bondholder group: constructive on the process, demanding on final economics. It assumes the US$531/t July/August spread proxy holds through Q3 and uses the site’s US$694M EBITDA estimate. Individual Elliott and Contrarian signatures remain unconfirmed.