Publication review note - Run 4

Date: 18 August 2026, evening

The original mediator memo is saved in r2-r3-mediation.md. Two judgments were changed before publishing Run 4 as the site’s current view.

Do not put IG4 cash back in

Run 3 still had IG4 funding US$300 million plus a US$50 million backstop. That was the reason creditors were assumed to take 15% warrants. Pipeline Valor on 18 August reported that neither Petrobras nor IG4 is willing to inject capital. Putting the IG4 money back would repeat the mistake this rerun was meant to fix.

If a finished out-of-court deal happens at all, this run uses 17.5% warrants, rising to 25%, because there is no new shareholder cash to absorb losses. A last-resort IG4 cheque of US$125–150 million is mentioned in the IG4 memo as a possibility, not as the base case.

Petrobras remains unsigned later payment terms on naphtha. The working figure is US$500 million. That is not a promise to inject equity if the company misses tests.

Placeholder filing versus court case

The raw mediator assigned 34% to a placeholder filing and 44% to a court restructuring. That pairing treats Elliott’s no as close to a veto on filing at all.

O Globo reported, from the company side, that Braskem is preparing to file next week. Brazilian banks are supportive, and it is still mathematically possible for longer-term holders to show about US$2.35 billion of notes (more than one-third of the listed notes). That supports a slightly higher chance of a filing. Published probabilities are therefore 38% placeholder filing and 39% court restructuring. The raw 44% court-case number is still the right one if those bondholders do not show up, or if nothing is filed by Monday.

A finished out-of-court deal with no shareholder cash stays 14% (raw 12%, rounded up because 90 extra days can still produce a full plan if a placeholder case is already on file). Paying the arrears without a filing stays 3%. Debt-for-control financing or a Petrobras backstop stays 6%.

What was not changed

Third-quarter EBITDA of US$750 million is still only a sensitivity. The remaining Idesa cash of about US$350 million is still treated as parent cash the company has to spend. Mexico remains a separate case, capped at the disclosed US$476 million. Fitch at RD, and D on either kind of filing, stays in the record.

This note is an editorial review of the model, not a fifth agent vote.