Publication review note

Date: 18 August 2026

The raw mediator output is preserved in r2-r3-mediation.md. Before publishing Run 3 as the site's current view, two judgments were adjusted.

Warrants

The raw mediation used 17.5% initial warrants, stepping to 25%, because commercially priced Petrobras credit is not loss-absorbing capital and because about US$350 million of parent cash is treated as a live Idesa use. Those terms are internally coherent as a creditor-favorable case.

They are too punitive for the central case once IG4 is already at its about-US$350 million authority cap, Mexico is covenanted as a hard stop after the disclosed US$476 million, and Petrobras support is still modeled as a US$500 million to US$750 million trade-credit range. The published base restores 15% initial warrants stepping to 22.5%, including a Mexico-leakage trigger. The 17.5% to 25% structure remains the creditor-favorable outcome.

RJ and base EJ

The raw mediator assigned 42% to the base EJ and 28% to RJ. That pairing treats an empty Monday as the working case.

The Idesa prepack also demonstrates that Braskem can close a consensual in-court deal and sequence Mexico before the parent stay expires. That fact supports a protected plan-to-a-plan filing even if the term sheet is still incomplete. Published probabilities are therefore 48% base EJ and 23% RJ. The raw 28% RJ remains the right number if the remaining Idesa cheque funds before 24 August and no parent filing appears.

What was not adjusted

Petrobras support remains US$500 million firm plus up to US$250 million of conditional capacity. IG4 remains US$300 million funded plus a US$50 million backstop. Liquidity floors remain US$750 million interim and US$1.0 billion definitive, now expressly after the remaining Idesa contribution. Q3 EBITDA of US$750 million is still a sensitivity, not a reported result.

This note is an editorial model review, not a new agent vote. It exists so readers can compare the preserved raw simulation with the final published judgment.