Braskem Run 5: current creditor-coalition model
Cutoff: 27 August 2026. Public information only.
Result
The filed plan changes how the creditor chair should be modeled. Schedule A shows that the ad hoc bondholder group signed across every major international bond series and supplied most of the 39.6% initial coalition. Elliott and Contrarian are reported major holders, but their individual signatures are not publicly disclosed.
The corrected posture is process-supportive, economically demanding-not a presumed hostile holdout.
The current Run 5 also assumes that the US$531/t July/August same-formula PE spread proxy persists through Q3. Using the site’s spread bridge-US$586M at the plan’s US$316/t benchmark plus roughly US$0.5M for each US$1/t above it-produces a US$694M Q3 EBITDA estimate. This is a sensitivity, not company guidance or booked cash.
| Outcome | Current Run 5 probability |
|---|---|
| Updated EJ with conditional capital or equitization | 34% |
| Updated EJ primarily through extension / PIK / credit enhancement | 23% |
| Failed EJ followed by RJ or equivalent | 34% |
| Creditor-favorable control / secured new money | 7% |
| Cure / refinance | 2% |
Combined updated-EJ outcomes rise from 50% in Run 5S to 57%. RJ falls from 42% to 34%. The shift reflects demonstrated willingness to use the EJ process and a gap of only about 10.4 percentage points to majority approval.
This is not a bullish reading of final terms. The signatories obtained controls, milestones and termination rights, while capital support, equitization, maturity and PIK remain open. The central outcome is now a near tie between a capital/equitization EJ and RJ, with an extension-led EJ providing an additional 23% path.
Modeled final term sheet
Run 5 selects the following clearing package. It is a forecast, not a statement that the parties agreed these terms.
| Term | Modeled final treatment |
|---|---|
| Principal | No haircut at closing; up to US$1.0B converts at year-end 2028 if net leverage remains above 5.0× |
| Maturities | Extend 2026–2034 maturities by five years; leave 2041, 2050 and 2081 final maturities unchanged |
| Interest | 24 months at 4% cash plus residual contractual coupon PIK; contractual coupon plus 150bp cash afterward |
| Creditor equity | 17.5% fully diluted non-voting warrants at closing; 25% on objective misses |
| Liquidity | R$2.35B Petrobras secured trade line plus US$570M rolled LC / working-capital capacity |
| Cash controls | US$750M liquidity floor; 50% sweep above US$1.0B; 75% net asset-sale sweep; no dividends until leverage is below 3.5× for two quarters |
| Mexico | Parent support capped at the disclosed US$476M |
On US$10.3B of corporate gross debt, 4% cash interest starts near US$412M a year. Against the disclosed US$654M–US$665M annual cash-interest burden, the residual PIK adds roughly US$0.5B over two years. Using the US$694M Q3 estimate as an annualized sensitivity produces about 3.7× post-PIK net leverage; US$2.0B of normalized EBITDA produces about 5.1×. The US$1.0B conversion backstop addresses the weaker case.