Braskem negotiation rerun: common brief (current Run 5)

Cutoff: 27 August 2026. Public information only. This run carries forward Run 5S’s Q3 spread sensitivity and corrects the creditor-coalition assumption.

Corrected creditor fact pattern

  • Schedule A of the filed EJ lists the Grupo Ad Hoc de Bondholders as a signatory across the 2028, 2030, 2031, 2033, 2034, 2041, 2050 and 2081 series. Organized bondholders supplied a little over 31% of total subject claims; the complete signatory coalition represents 39.6%.
  • Elliott and Contrarian are repeatedly reported as major Braskem bondholders and participants in the creditor group, but the public schedule does not identify beneficial fund names. Do not state that either fund individually signed.
  • Model the disclosed ad hoc group as process-supportive and economically demanding. Retire the assumption that an Elliott/Contrarian chair necessarily stayed outside or would fight the filing itself.
  • Signing the standstill is not approval of final economics. Signatories retain milestones, consent rights and termination rights; a majority is still required.
  • Barclays and Citibank signed. Santander has both participating and non-participating exposures. The creditor book is not one uniform bloc.

Q3 operating sensitivity carried forward

  • Assume the 27 August same-formula PE spread proxy of US$531/t holds through Q3.
  • Use the site’s US$694M Q3 EBITDA spread-bridge estimate: US$586M at the plan’s US$316/t benchmark plus roughly US$0.5M for each US$1/t above it. Do not treat this sensitivity as company guidance, assume cash conversion or repeat Q2’s US$1.043B.

Fixed financing facts

  • The EJ covers about US$10.9B and needs roughly another 10.4 percentage points for a majority.
  • Petrobras’ R$2.35B facility remains secured commercial credit, not equity.
  • No public irrevocable shareholder cheque exists. Maturity, PIK, capital support, equitization and final creditor compensation remain open.

Each role must distinguish process support from economic approval. The mediator must produce probabilities totaling 100%.