Braskem Run 5S: current spreads persist through Q3
Cutoff: 27 August 2026. Public information and the site’s live spread tracker only.
Result
Holding today’s US$531/t same-formula PE spread proxy through Q3 produces a modeled Q3 EBITDA range of US$500M–US$700M, with a US$600M midpoint. That is materially better than the company’s US$316/t Q3 spread assumption, but the EBITDA midpoint is only US$14M above its US$586M quarterly plan.
The rerun therefore changes the restructuring result only modestly: combined updated-EJ outcomes rise from 49% to 50%, while RJ falls from 43% to 42%. The extra point goes to an extension / PIK / credit-enhancement solution, not to a shareholder-funded deal.
| Outcome | Run 5S probability |
|---|---|
| Updated EJ with conditional capital or equitization | 31% |
| Updated EJ primarily through extension / PIK / credit enhancement | 19% |
| Failed EJ followed by RJ or equivalent | 42% |
| Creditor-favorable control / secured new money | 6% |
| Cure / refinance | 2% |
Why the change is small
- The spread is a proxy built from delayed naphtha, an August HDPE print and Braskem’s disclosed feedstock formula. It is not realized Brazilian pricing.
- Q2’s US$1.043B EBITDA does not repeat in this case.
- Better margins do not automatically reverse working capital, restore supplier finance, fund Idesa or settle US$10.9B of claims.
- The R$2.35B Petrobras line remains secured trade credit, and no binding shareholder equity commitment is public.
The sensitivity strengthens the argument for cash-tested extension terms. Creditors still need capital or equitization triggers if reported liquidity and cash conversion miss the plan.