Braskem negotiation rerun: common brief (Run 5S)

Cutoff: 27 August 2026. This sensitivity keeps every legal, liquidity and governance fact from Run 5 and changes one operating assumption only.

Q3 spread assumption

• The live tracker fetched at 12:21 CT showed a same-formula Braskem PE spread proxy of US$531/t: August HDPE of about US$1,190/t, delayed naphtha of US$744/t, and the disclosed 82% naphtha / 18% U.S. NGL formula.
• This is a proxy, not a company-reported realized Brazilian spread. The last official spread was US$773/t in Q2; the company’s Q3 planning spread was US$316/t.
• Assume US$531/t holds as the Q3 average. The site model maps that to US$500M–US$700M of Q3 EBITDA, with a US$600M midpoint. Do not assume Q2’s US$1.043B repeats.
• Stronger spreads can improve EBITDA without equal cash conversion. Preserve the risks from working capital, interest, capex, Alagoas, Idesa funding, defaults and reduced supplier finance.

Fixed Run 5 facts

• The 24 August EJ covers about US$10.9B of unsecured financial claims and has 39.6% initial support. A majority is still required within 90 days.
• The detailed proposal is due 31 August, the shareholder/creditor meeting by 9 September, and an agreement in principle by 9 October.
• Petrobras’ R$2.35B facility is secured commercial feedstock credit, not equity or an unsecured-creditor backstop.
• No public irrevocable shareholder cheque exists. Maturity, PIK, capital support and equitization remain open.

Each role must explain how the Q3 sensitivity changes its BATNA and terms. The mediator must give outcome probabilities totaling 100%.