Publication review note - Run 5S

This is a sensitivity, not a replacement for Run 5 and not company guidance.

The live US$531/t figure is labeled as a same-formula estimate. The EBITDA mapping preserves the site model’s US$500M–US$700M range and US$600M midpoint. It does not substitute Q2’s official US$773/t spread or US$1.043B EBITDA.

Because the midpoint is close to the company’s US$586M Q3 plan, a one-point probability shift is more defensible than a wholesale re-rating of the EJ. Cash conversion, final economics and shareholder loss absorption remain the decisive unknowns.