Petrobras - Run 5S, Round 1

The US$531/t proxy modestly improves Braskem’s operating case. It does not change the legal or commercial character of Petrobras’ R$2.35B secured facility.

Offer: give creditors visibility on facility conditions and consider making future contingent support tests responsive to reported cash conversion rather than headline EBITDA alone.

BATNA: continue secured commercial dealings through the EJ. Stronger spreads reduce near-term supply risk but do not create authority for an unconditional equity cheque.

Non-negotiable: no double counting of better margins and trade credit, and no assumption that Petrobras absorbs losses if Q3 cash misses the modeled range.