Rounds 2–3 and mediation - Run 5S
Clearing point
The sensitivity narrows the operating dispute but does not eliminate the financing dispute. All parties can use a US$600M Q3 midpoint in the business plan if it is shown as a US$500M–US$700M sensitivity and not booked as cash.
The most workable package is:
- 18–30 months of relief and maturities of at least five years.
- Monthly liquidity and working-capital reporting, with a cash sweep only above a protected operating and Idesa-funding floor.
- Some cash interest; PIK is explicit compensation for time, not evidence of solvency.
- A contingent shareholder-capital or equitization mechanism triggered by reported liquidity, leverage and cash conversion-not the spread proxy alone.
- No additional Idesa support beyond the disclosed commitment without creditor visibility and agreed protection.
Outcome view
| Outcome by the end of the EJ window | Run 5 | Run 5S |
|---|---|---|
| Updated EJ with conditional shareholder capital or debt/equity solution | 31% | 31% |
| Updated EJ primarily through extension / PIK / credit enhancement | 18% | 19% |
| Failed EJ followed by RJ or comparable process | 43% | 42% |
| Creditor-favorable control or secured new-money transaction | 6% | 6% |
| Cure / refinance outside coercive restructuring | 2% | 2% |
| Total | 100% | 100% |
The one-point movement from RJ to a non-equity EJ is deliberately small. The US$600M midpoint is only US$14M above the company’s Q3 plan, while the upper bridge estimate is not yet reported and may not convert to cash.