Publication review note - Run 5

Run 4 correctly treated a thin EJ as an uncertain next step. It is now superseded by the 24 August filing. The new record uses the filed plan and its negotiation framework as the primary source.

Two updates matter most:

• The plan’s shareholder-support language is material, but conditional. It includes potential liquidity support and an equity contribution/backstop if negotiated metrics are missed, while expressly requiring agreement and applicable corporate approvals. The record therefore moves shareholder-supported EJ from a residual political-override case into a real 31% outcome, but does not book it as committed capital.
• Petrobras’ R$2.35B credit limit is a disclosed commercial facility with receivables, escrow and tax-credit security. It reduces the near-term risk of feedstock disruption, but it is not unsecured debt relief or loss-absorbing equity.

The 49% combined probability of an updated EJ reflects an actual filing and a 39.6% starting coalition. The 43% RJ probability remains high because a majority is still needed, final economics are absent, and the creditor/shareholder burden-sharing dispute is not resolved.