Rounds 2-3 and neutral mediation - Run 5
What cleared
The parties do not need to negotiate whether an EJ should be filed: it was filed on 24 August. They agree the next 90 days should preserve operations and permit a full diligence process. The disclosed Petrobras facility materially improves the chance that feedstock continues to flow through year-end, subject to its collateral and suspension conditions.
They also agree that the first plan is not final economics. Its 39.6% support is a process coalition, not evidence that creditors have accepted a coupon, maturity, equity split or shareholder contribution.
The live bargain
| Issue | Braskem | Petrobras | Shine I / IG4 | Creditors |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Relief period | Needed for liquidity | Can support a negotiated framework | Needed to preserve option value | Only with cash interest / compensation and controls |
| Commercial liquidity | Petrobras facility supports operations | R$2.35B secured trade line, not equity | Supports | Must be transparent and not drain unsecured recovery |
| Shareholder support | Possible, subject to approvals | Conditional, commercially and governance bounded | Conditional, no public cheque | Wants a defined, enforceable burden-sharing commitment |
| Equitization | Possible but not pre-agreed | Must avoid assumed control consequence | Must have valuation and residual stake | Wants it as a real deleveraging tool, not window dressing |
| Idesa | Preserve disclosed path | No new implied obligation | No blank cheque | Wants cash leakage limits / disclosure |
Mediator’s clearing range
- By 31 August: a detailed proposal must turn “possible” shareholder support and equitization into alternative, quantified structures. It can keep amounts confidential to NDAd creditors, but cannot rely on undefined capital.
- By 9 September: Petrobras and Shine I principals meet creditors and explain decision rights, commercial-facility conditions and the circumstances in which each would support a capital solution.
- By 9 October: agreement in principle should combine a 18–30 month relief period, some cash-pay interest, PIK only as an explicit price of time, five-year-or-longer maturities, information rights, cash controls and either a binding contingent equity facility or a negotiated debt/equity conversion.
- Idesa: no additional parent support beyond the disclosed commitment without creditor visibility and agreed liquidity protections.
Outcome view at the end of 90 days
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Updated EJ with conditional shareholder capital or debt/equity solution | 31% |
| Updated EJ primarily through extension / PIK / credit enhancement | 18% |
| Failed EJ followed by RJ or comparable broader process | 43% |
| Creditor-favorable control or secured new-money transaction | 6% |
| Cure / refinance outside coercive restructuring | 2% |
| Total | 100% |
The filing increases the probability of an orderly process. The secured Petrobras facility improves operating liquidity. Neither fact establishes that Petrobras or Shine I has agreed to absorb losses. That distinction keeps RJ the largest single terminal outcome.