ARCHIVED RUN 1 · 16 AUG 2026
Original mediation base case
This is the first published simulation, preserved as it appeared before the 17 August report on Petrobras trade credit. It has not been retroactively revised.
Base terms
| Term | Run 1 result |
|---|---|
| Maturity | 5 years |
| Interest relief | 2 years at about 4% cash plus 4% PIK |
| Coupon after relief | Existing coupon plus 200bp |
| Working capital and LC | US$1.1B total |
| Petrobras | US$550M capped support |
| IG4 / Shine I | US$275M contribution or backstop |
| Creditors | US$275M new money or LC support |
| Creditor warrants | 15%, stepping to 22.5% |
| Initial principal haircut | None |
| Minimum liquidity | US$1.0B |
Probability view
These were the probabilities displayed immediately before Run 2. They are model judgments, not reported odds.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Base negotiated EJ | 50% |
| Equity-friendlier deal | 15% |
| Creditor-favorable consensual deal | 20% |
| Judicial reorganization | 15% |
What this run did not include
The agent package used public information through 16 August. It did not include the 17 August Valor report describing up to six months of payment terms on Petrobras naphtha purchases, or the 18 August Idesa prepack.