The company’s June planning case. After the remaining Idesa cash and no IG4 money, weak cash conversion raises a court case to about 50%.
RUN COMPARISON
What changed when shareholders refused to put money in?
Run 4 takes IG4 cash out of the base case, treats Elliott as voting no unless Petrobras promises extra support if tests are missed, and separates a placeholder filing from a finished deal.
Run 3 to Run 4
| Issue | Run 3 · 18 Aug | Run 4 · 18 Aug evening | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|
| Next step | A finished out-of-court deal, with IG4 putting in cash | A placeholder filing if other bondholders and banks supply the one-third; Elliott / Contrarian say no unless Petrobras promises extra cash if tests are missed | Pipeline reported no shareholder injection. O Globo reported a filing next week. |
| Placeholder filing | Folded into the 48% “base deal” | 38% | Filing for more time is no longer treated as the same event as a finished, court-approved plan. |
| Finished out-of-court deal | 48% | 14% | No IG4 cash and no Petrobras backstop. A finished plan still needs more than half of the notes. |
| Court restructuring | 23% | 39% | Elliott’s no, no new shareholder money, and the 24 August deadline make a court case about as likely as a placeholder filing. |
| IG4 / Shine I | US$300 million funded plus a US$50 million backstop | US$0 from the fund | Pipeline: no willingness to inject. A last-resort US$125–150 million is mentioned, not assumed. |
| Petrobras | US$500–750 million of naphtha terms; no guarantee | About US$500 million of later naphtha payments, still unsigned; backstop rejected | Tuesday’s ask that Petrobras inject cash if tests fail is off the table. Paying later for naphtha is not new equity. |
| Warrants in a finished deal | 15%, rising to 22.5% | 17.5%, rising to 25% | Run 3’s 15% assumed IG4 cash. That cash is gone. |
The key correction
Run 3 still assumed IG4 would put about US$300 million into Braskem so creditors would take 15% warrants. Pipeline reported that neither IG4 nor Petrobras is willing to inject capital. The 48% finished deal is retired. The live choice is a placeholder filing versus a court case.
Run 2 to Run 3
The midday 18 August rerun added Braskem Idesa’s prepack and the remaining US$350 million parent cheque. It still assumed a Shine recap.
| Issue | Run 2 · 17 Aug | Run 3 · 18 Aug | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mexico | Prospective ring-fence; no new parent cash beyond existing loans | Separate SDTX prepack; US$476M cap, about US$350M remaining | The 18 August 6-K made Mexico a filed estate and a live cash use. |
| Base EJ | 55% | 48% | Closing Mexico contagion helped a Monday filing. Thinner parent cash hurt a completed deal. |
| RJ | 17% | 23% | The remaining Idesa cheque made an empty 24 August a first-order RJ path. |
| IG4 / Shine I | US$300M plus US$50M backstop | Same number; Idesa US$476M does not count | Run 3 still treated Shine cash as the clearing chip. |
Run 1 to Run 2
The 17 August rerun incorporated the Valor report on Petrobras naphtha terms.
| Issue | Run 1 · 16 Aug | Run 2 · 17 Aug | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|
| Petrobras support | US$550M capped support | US$500M firm plus up to US$250M conditional naphtha credit | The 17 August report specifies commercial supplier credit. Six months is worth nearly US$950M at the June-plan purchase rate, but that is a ceiling, not a commitment. |
| LC support | US$1.1B combined liquidity pool | US$572M Q3 rollover plus US$300M incremental capacity | Run 2 separates rollover from genuinely new capacity to avoid double counting. |
| IG4 / Shine I | US$275M | US$300M funded plus US$50M backstop | Run 2 asked the controller for more clearly loss-absorbing capital. |
| Post-relief coupon | +200bp | +150bp | More explicit working-capital support reduced the required coupon premium in the base case. |
| RJ probability | 15% | 17% | Reported Petrobras support improved bridge feasibility, but it was not binding. |
Third-quarter cases, not forecasts
A sensitivity only. Signed US$500 million of naphtha terms helps a placeholder filing. It does not get Elliott to approve a finished plan.
No parent filing by 24 August is a 75% court case in this run.