PE formula spread
Public stand-in of 82% × (US PE − naphtha) + 18% × (US PE − 50/50 ethane/propane). Not Platts. The latest Chicago date is live until the nightly snapshot lands.
Daily PE formula
SPREADS
Braskem’s key spreads, rebuilt from public prices
The company uses different reference margins for Brazil PE, Brazil PP and U.S. PP. This page rebuilds each disclosed formula with public proxies, shows every conversion, and keeps regional prices separate.
DAILY SNAPSHOTS · TURSO
Last 90 days
One observation per America/Chicago date from the nightly collection. Today’s point uses the current PE quote when the live offer is available; a recent successful live offer is cached during a source outage, with the monthly fallback as the last resort. PE is Braskem’s 82/18 formula. PP is Asia PP minus ARA naphtha. The stored series is short until cron has run for three months.
$623/t+16 from Sep 1
PP spread
Asia PP minus ARA naphtha, Braskem’s disclosed PP reference. Not the U.S. PP−PGP cross-check. The latest Chicago date is live until the nightly snapshot lands.
Daily Asia PP − naphtha
US PE price
Braskem 40/30/30 weighted composite of HDPE, LDPE and LLDPE visible offers. Not Platts. The latest Chicago date is live until the nightly snapshot lands.
Daily US PE
US PP price
Equal-weight composite of US PP copolymer and homopolymer visible offers. Not Platts. The latest Chicago date is the current offer when available; otherwise the chart shows the last stored snapshot.
Daily US PP
One quarter. If that lasted a year, it is the $3.0B case. It has not lasted.
How they define it ↗Same recipe, live offer proxy at $1,349/t, and today’s naphtha. The plan bridge is about $2.411B annualized; the coarse spread band below still labels this $2.5B.
Sep 23, 2026, 1:30 AM CTStill vs naphtha. Different PE price — Brazil import parity, not US resin. PP at home was $1,198/t.
The MZIQ plan has this falling to $1,088 then $971.Braskem uses Asia PP minus ARA naphtha. Here, Trading Economics China PP ¥8,517/t ÷ 6.7073 USD/CNY = $1,270/t; less $817/t naphtha = $453/t.
Public China proxy, not Braskem’s paid Asia assessment · Sep 23, 2026, 1:30 AM CTTrading Economics PP ↗USD/CNY ↗Braskem PP formula ↗ROUGHLY NOW · AUDIT TRAIL
Every input behind $623/t
This rebuilds Braskem’s disclosed feedstock mix with public stand-ins. Values are rounded for display; the calculation uses the unrounded quotes.
SPREAD FORMULA
82% × (US PE − naphtha) + 18% × (US PE − 50/50 ethane/propane)82% × ($1,349/t − $817/t) + 18% × ($1,349/t − $314/t)
= $623/tBraskem 6-K formula source ↗US PE COMPOSITE · $/LB OFFER RANGES
HDPE - Blow Mold: $0.530–$0.655 mid $0.5925LDPE - Film: $0.630–$0.700 mid $0.6650LLDPE - Film: $0.535–$0.635 mid $0.5850
Equal weight to the midpoint of HDPE blow molding, LDPE film and LLDPE film; average × 2,204.62 lb/t = $1,349/t. These are visible live offers, not completed trades or a paid Platts assessment. Monthly cross-check: $1,210/t (September 2026).
US PP SEGMENT · PUBLIC OFFER / PGP CROSS-CHECK
PP Copolymer - Inj: $0.600–$0.705 mid $0.6525PP Homopolymer - Inj: $0.500–$0.705 mid $0.6025
Equal-weight PP offer midpoint × 2,204.62 lb/t = $1,383/t. Front-month PCW PGP $0.38429/lb × 2,204.62 = $847/t. Braskem’s U.S. definition is US PP − US PGP, giving $536/t versus $643/t in Q2 and the June plan’s $497/t Q3 assumption. This is a regional cross-check; it is held constant in the Brazil-focused EBITDA bridge because Braskem does not disclose a clean U.S. volume sensitivity.
82% NAPHTHA LEG$532/t × 82% = $436/t
50/50 NGL COST($189/t + $438/t) ÷ 2 = $314/t
18% NGL LEG$1,036/t × 18% = $186/t
MODELED Q3 EBITDA · PE + PP · NOT ACTUAL
$586M company anchor + $0.5M × (623 − $627) + $0.25M × (453 − $377) = $603MWhat is reported: Braskem’s June 25 planning package shows $586M of Q3 EBITDA and Q3 benchmark forecasts of $627/t for PE and $377/t for PP, based on May market conditions. The company did not publish a claim that those two spreads alone explain the EBITDA forecast.
What is ours: the bridge applies approximate quarterly Brazil volumes of 0.50Mt PE and 0.25Mt PP to the change in each same-formula benchmark, while holding utilization, chemicals, international units, REIQ and other factors at plan.
Effective-margin cross-check: the plan shows domestic PE at $1,088/t and domestic PP at $825/t. Holding the plan’s domestic uplifts constant implies roughly $1,084/t PE and $901/t PP today. This is a check, not an extra EBITDA adjustment.
Mechanical annualization: $603M × 4 = $2.411B. It is not a forecast that these spreads last four quarters.
DOWNSIDE · DEFINE “ZERO”
PE + PP benchmarks $0/t → $178MThis isolated case retains plan domestic uplifts of $461/t for PE and $448/t for PP. Tariffs, anti-dumping, import parity and REIQ are why zero international reference spreads are not zero realized Brazil margins.
Effective Brazil PE + PP $0/t → -$164MThis harsher stress removes both effective domestic resin spreads while holding chemicals, Mexico, US/Europe and other items constant. Q2’s disclosed REIQ benefit was $115M, but it is already reflected in reported results and must not be added twice.
THE MAP
Where that sits for EBITDA
About $200 million of annual EBITDA per $100/t, if the spread holds. Not a one-quarter spike.
$1.5B
$2.0B
$2.5B
$3.0B
$4.0B
$300$450$600$700$800+
Q2 $773/t → $3.0B Now $623/t → $2.411B isolated bridge ($2.5B coarse band)
| If the spread holds here | Annual EBITDA | |
|---|---|---|
| $300/t to $400/t | $1.5B | Quiet |
| $450/t to $550/t | $2.0B | Normal |
| $600/t to $700/t | $2.5B | Strong |
| $700/t to $800/t | $3.0B | Like Q2 |
| Above $800/t | $4.0B | A boom |
Q3
What this quarter is worth
The PE July/August proxy is $679/t; the live PE formula is $623/t and the live Asia PP proxy is $453/t. September is still open.
At $773/t. Inventory and prices jumped. Do not treat this as the run-rate.
Q1 was $192M at $365/tBraskem’s June restructuring plan paired this EBITDA with $627/t PE and $377/t PP reference spreads. A later June 30 market deck cut those forecasts without publishing a replacement quarterly EBITDA bridge.
Later market forecasts: PE $316/t and PP $329/t. Effective June-plan spreads: PE $1,088/t and PP $825/t.$575M to $625M. This site estimate starts from the internally consistent $586M June plan, then adds roughly $0.5M/qtr for each $1/t of PE movement from $627/t and $0.25M/qtr for PP movement from $377/t.
At the current live PE $623/t, the coarse table alone says about $625M/qtr. The later $316/t PE forecast is shown as market context, not incorrectly paired with the older $586M EBITDA plan.BRAZIL
Why $1,739 is not $773
Short answer: it is still vs naphtha. The PE price is what a Brazilian converter pays, not the US quote that feeds the EBITDA table.
82% × (US PE − ARA naphtha) + 18% × (US PE − 50/50 US ethane/propane). US resin minus ARA naphtha, plus a slice of cheap US gas. This is the number on the meter.
6-K footnote ↗Brazil selling price minus the naphtha and other feedstocks they actually burned. Same crack, a much higher resin price. The gap is about $966/t.
MZIQ plan, PDF p.22 / slide 19 ↗Import parity, not US PE
Brazil sells resin at the cost of bringing it in. A 20% import duty on PE, PP and PVC runs through 16 October 2026. On top of that: freight, insurance, PIS/COFINS on imports, and since March a five-year anti-dumping duty of $199/t on US PE and $238/t on Canadian PE. The ceiling is landed cost, not the USGC print.
The war moved the ceiling
Hormuz shut. Middle East PE was scarce. International PE and naphtha both jumped; Brazilian prices jumped more, because the alternative was importing resin that was expensive, late, or both. Q2 PE sales in Brazil actually fell on higher imports — converters tested that landed cost. Braskem still collected it on what it sold.
REIQ cheapened the naphtha side
In March the REIQ raw-materials credit went from 0.73% to 5.8%. Q2 booked $115 million of PIS/COFINS credits on feedstock. Same PE price, cheaper naphtha, fatter effective spread. That money is in Brazil EBITDA. It is not in the $773 formula.
One quarter, already fading
The MZIQ plan has this falling to $1,088 in Q3 and $971 in Q4 as US–Asia arb closes and imports normalize. Domestic PP–naphtha was $1,198/t — same country, much less of this PE-specific wall. Do not annualize $1,739. That extra $966/t is why Q2 overshoots a clean $773 run-rate; a lot of it sat in inventory, not cash.
Duty: Camex kept the 20% PE/PP/PVC tariff to 16 Oct 2026. Anti-dumping: GECEX 876/2026. REIQ: Q2 earnings 6-K, $115 million. Effective spreads: MZIQ plan, PDF p.22 / slide 19. We do not have Braskem’s internal recipe line by line — treat the $966 as the residual of import parity, tax credits and timing, not a precise stack. 20% tariff ↗ Q2 6-K ↗
PRICES
The ingredients
Public stand-ins. Platts is paid. China is on this board so you can see it is not the table.
Braskem’s formula$623/t
PE minus naphtha only$532/t
Asia PP − naphtha$453/t
US PP − US PGP$536/t
China PE, not the table$380/t
Trading Economics supplies naphtha, propane and the preferred China PP proxy. It does not list U.S. PP or PGP, so those use visible Plastics Exchange offers and the front-month NYMEX PCW future via TradingView. Asia PP is weaker than the U.S. proxy today, but it is above both Braskem’s $457/t Q2 reference and $377/t June-plan assumption.
CHARTS
The year so far
China looks flat because Asia PE and naphtha moved together. Braskem’s number is US resin versus naphtha. That is why Q2 was a record and the China line was not.
What Braskem reported
Q2 was the spike. Dashed is the consultant’s path back down. Now is around $500 again — the $2.0B band, not $3.0B.
1Q26 $365/t2Q26 $773/t · $3.0BNow $623/t · $2.5B3Q26e $316/t4Q26e $412/t
Filed, plus nowConsultant path
US PE and naphtha
The two ingredients. US resin jumped in the spring. Naphtha did too. Both have come off. Not Platts, so this will not reprint $773.
US PENaphtha
Filing vs a US stand-in vs China
Black is what Braskem filed. Green is the same recipe on US government resin prices. Red is China. Now is $623/t; its plan bridge is about $2.411B annualized. Q2 sits above it because the filing used Platts, not this index.
1Q26 $365/t2Q26 $773/t · $3.0BNow $623/t · $2.5B
Braskem filedSame recipe, US indexChina
PP
Same filings, different plastic.
1Q26 $293/t2Q26 $457/tNow $453/t3Q26e $329/t4Q26e $386/t
ActualConsultant path
FROM THE FILINGS
The other spreads
Solid is what they reported. Hatched is the plan.
PE spread
$773/t 2Q26This is the number on the EBITDA table. US polyethylene minus naphtha, with a slice of cheap US gas liquids.
PP spread
$457/t 2Q26Polypropylene minus naphtha. Matters, but it is not the PE column.
Mexico PE–ethane
$1,425/t 2Q26Idesa’s spread. Q2 was $1,425/t. The $824/t figure is 1Q.
What Brazil actually got
$1,739/t 2Q26Still vs naphtha. Brazil PE sells at import parity, not the US quote. The extra ~$966/t is duty, anti-dumping, REIQ and a shortage. The MZIQ plan fades this to $1,088 then $971.
HOW TO READ IT
Four things to remember
Do not annualize Q2
They printed $773/t and $1.043 billion of EBITDA in one quarter. The $3.0B year needs that spread to last, not to show up once.
~$500 is $2.0B, not $3.0B
That is where the same recipe sits today. China around $400 is even less relevant to this table.
Brazil collected more than the benchmark
Still vs naphtha. The extra ~$965/t is import parity, anti-dumping, REIQ and a shortage — not a second PE–naphtha series. Extra spread in inventory is not cash.
Mexico is ethane, not naphtha
Q2 was $1,425/t. That is Idesa’s $476 million question, not the parent PE column.