RUN 4 · 18 AUG 2026 EVENING
No new shareholder money, and Elliott still says no
This rerun assumes Petrobras and IG4 will not inject capital, and that Elliott / Contrarian will not back a filing unless Petrobras promises extra cash if Braskem misses financial tests. The original mediator memo and the later editorial review are both saved.
What this run expects next
| Term | Run 4 result |
|---|---|
| Next step | Placeholder out-of-court filing next week if more than one-third of each group can be shown. The actual deal terms stay open. |
| Extra years, if a finished plan is later approved | Five extra years on the standby facility and near-dated debt |
| Cash interest for two years | 4% paid in cash. The rest of the contractual interest is added to the amount owed, so the debt grows. |
| Coupon after those two years | Today’s weighted coupon plus 1.50 to 2.00 percentage points. No cut to principal at the start. |
| Petrobras | Later payment terms on naphtha, still unsigned; about US$500 million; no equity, no backstop, no guarantee |
| IG4 / Shine I | US$0 from the fund; the Idesa US$476 million is Braskem’s own cash |
| Elliott / Contrarian | Will not support a filing unless Petrobras promises extra cash if tests are missed; other bondholders may still make a filing possible |
| Warrants, if a finished plan is later approved | 17.5%, rising to 25% if cash, liquidity, interest or extra Mexico cash tests are missed. None in next week’s filing. |
| Mexico | Separate Texas case; parent cash capped at the disclosed US$476 million |
| Fitch | RD now; D if the company files out of court or in court |
Current outcome view
No third-quarter result is assumed. The remaining Idesa cash of about US$350 million is money the parent still has to spend. The old 15% warrant deal that needed a US$300 million IG4 cheque is retired. If nothing is filed by 24 August, a court case is 75%.
Publication review
The raw mediator used 34% for a placeholder filing and 44% for a court case. The published view raises the filing to 38% because the company is preparing to file next week and longer-term bondholders may still supply the one-third, and assigns 39% to a court case. IG4 cash is not put back in. Warrants in a finished deal stay at 17.5%, rising to 25%.