RUN 5 · MODELED FINAL TERM SHEET
Five years. 4% cash. 17.5% warrants. US$1B conversion backstop.
The model now selects one executable clearing package. These are forecasted settlement terms, not terms publicly agreed by Braskem, its shareholders or creditors.
Corrected creditor model
| Question | Run 5 treatment |
|---|---|
| Who signed? | The disclosed ad hoc bondholder group, Barclays, Citi and participating Santander exposures, among others |
| Did Elliott sign? | Plausible but not publicly confirmed; beneficial fund names are masked |
| Creditor posture | Process-supportive and economically demanding |
| Q3 assumption | US$531/t July/August spread proxy holds through Q3; site estimate of US$694M EBITDA |
Selected clearing package
| Term | Modeled final treatment |
|---|---|
| Principal | No haircut at closing; up to US$1.0B converts at year-end 2028 if net leverage remains above 5.0× |
| Maturities | 2026–2034 maturities extend exactly five years; 2041, 2050 and 2081 final maturities stay unchanged |
| Interest | 24 months at 4% cash plus residual contractual coupon PIK; then contractual coupon plus 150bp cash |
| Creditor equity | 17.5% fully diluted non-voting warrants at closing, stepping to 25% on objective misses |
| Liquidity | R$2.35B Petrobras secured trade line plus US$570M rolled LC / working-capital capacity |
| Cash controls | US$750M minimum liquidity; 50% sweep above US$1.0B; 75% net asset-sale sweep |
| Distributions | No dividends or buybacks until net leverage is below 3.5× for two consecutive quarters |
| Mexico | Parent support capped at the disclosed US$476M; any excess triggers the warrant step-up |
Debt math: on US$10.3B of corporate gross debt, 4% cash interest starts near US$412M a year. Against the disclosed US$654M–US$665M annual cash-interest burden, the residual PIK adds roughly US$0.5B over two years. At the US$694M Q3 estimate annualized only for sensitivity, post-PIK net leverage is about 3.7×; at US$2.0B normalized EBITDA it is about 5.1×, which is why the conversion backstop exists.
Outcome view
Combined EJ: 57%. RJ falls to 34% from 42% in Run 5S. Final economics remain open, so process support is not treated as a completed deal.
Mediator’s read
The filing coalition falsifies the presumed-hostile-chair scenario. The clearing package still requires priced PIK, creditor controls and a binding capital or equitization mechanism tied to reported liquidity and cash conversion.