ARCHIVED RUN 2 · 17 AUG 2026
Updated mediation base case
This rerun incorporated the reported Petrobras trade-credit proposal. It has been superseded by Run 3, which adds the Idesa prepack. The raw mediator output and the subsequent publication review are both preserved.
Published base terms
| Term | Run 2 result |
|---|---|
| Maturity | 5 years |
| Interest relief | 2 years at about 4% cash plus residual contractual PIK |
| Coupon after relief | Existing coupon plus 150bp |
| Petrobras | US$500M firm plus up to US$250M conditional trade credit |
| LC support | US$572M Q3 roll plus US$300M incremental capacity |
| IG4 / Shine I | US$300M funded junior capital plus US$50M backstop |
| Creditor warrants | 15%, stepping to 22.5% |
| Initial principal haircut | None |
| Minimum liquidity | US$750M interim and US$1.0B final |
Archived outcome view
No Q3 result is assumed. US$586M is the June-plan case. US$750M and US$1.0B are sensitivities only.
Publication review
The raw mediator used a fixed US$500M Petrobras cap, 17.5% warrants stepping to 25%, and 22% RJ. The published base treats US$500M as a conservative floor rather than an expected cap, restores 15% warrants stepping to 22.5%, and assigns 17% to RJ. The more punitive terms remain the creditor-favorable case.
Later development
Braskem Idesa’s 18 August prepack is incorporated in Run 3. Run 4 then removes the Shine recap assumption. This page is preserved without retroactive changes.